The Red Report
September 2012 Home Sales Report:
(Now Includes Land/Commercial/Condo YTD closings- see at end of report)
Month Rutherford Williamson Davidson Wilson
January 183 167 396 90
February 222 189 413 107
March 288 242 526 162
April 354 292 627 133
May 358 375 706 158
June 365 384 705 197
July 375 407 687 180
August 390 395 693 197
September 289 324 604 182
Month Rutherford Williamson Davidson Wilson
January 169 140 302 92
February 152 150 329 85
March 259 245 427 133
April 251 209 467 112
May 278 305 518 138
June 263 316 596 134
July 290 337 521 158
August 289 274 572 158
September 261 244 527 131
October 259 232 468 144
November 238 201 425 129
December 231 264 508 143
TOTAL 2,940 2,917 5,660 1,575
Middle Tennessee Home Sales Continue to show Year to Date Increases:
Home Sales stay up 26% Year To Date with a 20% increase for September ’12 vs September ’11.
As we predicted, the seasonal decreases finally showed up. The year to date numbers continue to be much better than last year
so with only three more months to go, it should be safe to say 2012 will end much higher than 2011.
Total Home Closings up 20% for September 2012 verses September 2011.
Total Year to Date Home Closings are up 26%.
Total Inventories are down 18% from September 2011 to September 2012.
Home Closings for September 2012 vs September 2011:
Rutherford closings up 11% with average closed prices up 10%.
Williamson closings up 33% with average closed prices down 3%.
Davidson closings up 15% with average closed prices up 4%.
Wilson closings up 39% with average closed prices up 2%.
Prices are improving as everyone starts to see the market make the turn around. Appraisers are doing a little better,
but there is still a lot of room for improvement.
Home Closings from August 2012 to September 2012:
Rutherford closings down 26%
Williamson closings down 18%
Davidson closings down 13%
Wilson closings down 8%
These decreases don’t alarm me because the September ’12 versus September ’11 are all higher for ’12. We were also
expecting a seasonal decrease which came later than usual, so we would expect this seasonal drop in volume.
Pendings for September 2012:
Rutherford pended 346 which is down 9% from last month.
Williamson pended 323 which is down 21%.
Davidson pended 668 which is down 10%.
Wilson pended 95 which is up 9%.
These pending numbers show we continue to see the seasonal decreases we have been talking about all year.
I would also think the November elections are causing some buyers to be hesitant until then.
The good news is appraisals are improving, but we still have too many appraisal issues to stop discussing the issue.
Attention Buyers and Sellers: Please make sure the bank/mortgage company that is being used on your deal doesn’t
have a reputation for having issues with canceled/delayed closings because of appraisal issues.
Ask your Realtor because he/she will know which banks are closing or killing deals.
Commercial/Land Sales: All Four Counties-
Commercial YTD sales volume has gone up 39%- from $27million to $37.5million.
Land YTD sales volume has gone up 53%- from $62million to $95million.
Condo Sales: All Four Counties
32% increase 2012 YTD compared to 2011 YTD Closings.
2012- 2022 Closed YTD
2011- 1536 Closed YTD
Market Graphics Research Group, Inc/ Edsel Charles:
For those that don’t know Edsel Charles, his company tracks the new home markets all across the country, but
we are lucky to have him near by in Brentwood Tennessee. I’ve been using his reports/date most of my career
and I always learn something new every time I hear his presentations or read his reports. Most developers and
banks use Edsel’s data when making future decisions on new home development or construction.
Thank you to Edsel for allowing us to share this very informative data. Everything below is taken from the report:
“Strategic Planning Comments, Analysis and Forecast Nashville Market”
In June 2008, 1,290 subdivisions were started/going.
By June 2012, we have only 871 subdivisions started/going.
Lot Count Analysis:
In June 2008, we had 36,320 hand counted lots
As of June 2012 (4 years later) it had fallen to 21,516
From June 2012 to the end of 2017 we will most likely use 36,469 lots.
So in the 11 counties we must at an estimated 2.2 lots per acre average, develop 211 acres per month to just
keep up. I(Edsel) feel that within 8 months the reasonably good sites will be substantially gone.
We are headed for a lot crisis:
-Lack of Money
-Lack of lots in pipeline
-Lack of Developers
-Lack of Investors
-Lack of risk taking
Edsel goes on the say that From May of 2012 to May of 2013, we are seeing price upward movement for new
homes of 6% to 8%.
I feel very optimistic as we head into our seasonal slow period. I think once we get past the presidential election
and prepare for a busy Spring season, we’ll continue to see improvements in the overall health of the real-estate
market. I also hear more jobs are on the way to middle Tennessee and the other new jobs that were announced
in the past should start getting paychecks this winter. As long as new jobs are being created locally, we should
continue to see the local home sales and prices improve.
I’ll see everyone next month… Happy Fall & Halloween!!
©2012 Red Realty, LLC