The Red Report- September 2012

The Red Report

September 2012 Home Sales Report

(Now Includes Land/Commercial/Condo YTD closings- see at end of report)

 

 

CLOSINGS 2012

Month                  Rutherford          Williamson          Davidson             Wilson          

January                  183                       167                       396                        90

February                222                       189                       413                       107

March                    288                       242                       526                       162

April                      354                       292                       627                       133

May                       358                       375                       706                       158

June                       365                       384                       705                       197

July                        375                       407                       687                       180

August                   390                       395                       693                       197

September           289                      324                      604                      182 

 

CLOSINGS 2011

Month                  Rutherford          Williamson          Davidson             Wilson          

January                  169                        140                      302                        92

February                152                        150                      329                        85

March                    259                        245                       427                       133

April                      251                        209                       467                       112

May                       278                        305                       518                       138

June                       263                        316                       596                       134

July                        290                        337                       521                       158

August                   289                        274                       572                       158

September              261                        244                       527                       131

October                  259                        232                       468                       144

November              238                        201                       425                       129

December               231                       264                       508                        143       

TOTAL               2,940                   2,917                    5,660                     1,575

 

 

 

 

 

Middle Tennessee Home Sales Continue to show Year to Date Increases:

Home Sales stay up 26% Year To Date with a 20% increase for September ’12 vs September ’11.

As we predicted, the seasonal decreases finally showed up.  The year to date numbers continue to be much better than last year

so with only three more months to go, it should be safe to say 2012 will end much higher than 2011.

 

Total Home Closings up 20% for September 2012 verses September 2011.

Total Year to Date Home Closings are up 26%.

Total Inventories are down 18% from September 2011 to September 2012.

 

Home Closings for September 2012 vs September 2011:

Rutherford closings up 11% with average closed prices up 10%.

Williamson closings up 33% with average closed prices down 3%.

Davidson closings up 15% with average closed prices up 4%.

Wilson closings up 39%  with average closed prices up 2%.  

Prices are improving as everyone starts to see the market make the turn around.  Appraisers are doing a little better,

but there is still a lot of room for improvement. 

 

 

Home Closings from August 2012 to September 2012:

Rutherford closings down 26%

Williamson closings down 18%  

Davidson closings down 13%

Wilson closings down 8%

These decreases don’t alarm me because the September ’12 versus September ’11 are all higher for ’12.  We were also

expecting a seasonal decrease which came later than usual, so we would expect this seasonal drop in volume.

 

 

Pendings for September 2012:

Rutherford pended 346 which is down 9% from last month.  

Williamson pended 323 which is down 21%.

Davidson pended 668 which is down 10%.

Wilson pended 95 which is up 9%.

These pending numbers show we continue to see the seasonal decreases we have been talking about all year.

I would also think the November elections are causing some buyers to be hesitant until then.

 

Appraisals:

The good news is appraisals are improving, but we still have too many appraisal issues to stop discussing the issue.

Attention Buyers and Sellers: Please make sure the bank/mortgage company that is being used on your deal doesn’t

have a reputation for having issues with canceled/delayed closings because of appraisal issues.

Ask your Realtor because he/she will know which banks are closing or killing deals.

 

 

Commercial/Land Sales: All Four Counties-

Commercial YTD sales volume has gone up 39%- from $27million to $37.5million.

Land YTD sales volume has gone up 53%- from $62million to $95million.

 

Condo Sales: All Four Counties

32% increase 2012 YTD compared to 2011 YTD Closings.

2012- 2022 Closed YTD 

2011- 1536 Closed YTD

 

 

Market Graphics Research Group, Inc/ Edsel Charles:

For those that don’t know Edsel Charles, his company tracks the new home markets all across the country, but

we are lucky to have him near by in Brentwood Tennessee.  I’ve been using his reports/date most of my career

and I always learn something new every time I hear his presentations or read his reports.  Most developers and

banks use Edsel’s data when making future decisions on new home development or construction. 

Thank you to Edsel for allowing us to share this very informative data.  Everything below is taken from the report:

“Strategic Planning Comments, Analysis and Forecast Nashville Market”

Amazing Changes:

In June 2008, 1,290 subdivisions were started/going. 

By June 2012, we have only 871 subdivisions started/going. 

Lot Count Analysis:

In June 2008, we had 36,320 hand counted lots

As of June 2012 (4 years later) it had fallen to 21,516

From June 2012 to the end of 2017 we will most likely use 36,469 lots.

So in the 11 counties we must at an estimated 2.2 lots per acre average, develop 211 acres per month to just

keep up.  I(Edsel) feel that within 8 months the reasonably good sites will be substantially gone.

We are headed for a lot crisis:

            -Lack of Money

            -Lack of lots in pipeline

            -Lack of Developers

            -Lack of Investors

            -Lack of risk taking

Edsel goes on the say that From May of 2012 to May of 2013, we are seeing price upward movement for new

homes of 6% to 8%.

 

 

I feel very optimistic as we head into our seasonal slow period.  I think once we get past the presidential election

and prepare for a busy Spring season, we’ll continue to see improvements in the overall health of the real-estate

market.  I also hear more jobs are on the way to middle Tennessee and the other new jobs that were announced

in the past should start getting paychecks this winter.  As long as new jobs are being created locally, we should

continue to see the local home sales and prices improve.

 

I’ll see everyone next month…  Happy Fall & Halloween!!

 

 

Thanks,

Steven

 

 

Steven Dotson

President

Red Realty

www.RedRealty.com

www.RedSavesGreen.com

Direct: 615.896.1400

 

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